What is this web site about?
Predikon is a website born out of an academic project by the Information and Network Dynamics Laboratory (INDY Lab) at the Swiss Federal Institute for Technology in Lausanne (EPFL). Its main goal is to provide predictions about votes in Switzerland, as soon as municipal results are published by Swiss cantons starting at 12:00 pm on the day of a vote. As an example, we acurately predicted (a difference of less than 1%) the final result of the "Urban Sprawl Initiative" five minutes after noon, when only 35% of the citizen ballots were counted. We are actively working on extending the functionalities available on the web site, notably to include interesting visualizations of voting patterns.
How do your predictions work?
We designed a predictive model of the municipal results (in percentage of "yes") for Swiss votes. Based on past results, our model automatically learns features of municipalities. On the day of a vote, and as soon as some municipalities publish their results (their percentage of "yes"), our model uses the features to predict the unpublished results of other municipalities. The prediction of the national vote result is obtained by aggregating published results and predicted results. We will soon release a technical report to explain in more details our methodology.
Where do the data come from?
Where can I find the former version of Predikon?
It is availbale here. The former version of Predikon contains interesting visualizations of voting patterns in Switzerland.